Optimizing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies against COVID-19 using artificial intelligence

One key task in the early fight against the COVID-19 pandemic was to plan non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the spread of the infection while limiting the burden on the society and economy. With more data on the pandemic being generated, it became possible to model both the infection trends and intervention costs, transforming the creation of an intervention plan into a computational optimization problem. This paper proposes a framework developed to help policy-makers plan the best combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and to change them over time. We developed a hybrid machine-learning epidemiological model to forecast the infection trends, aggregated the socio-economic costs from the literature and expert knowledge, and used a multi-objective optimization algorithm to find and evaluate various intervention plans. The framework is modular and easily adjustable to a real-world situation, it is trained and tested on data collected from almost all countries in the world, and its proposed intervention plans generally outperform those used in real life in terms of both the number of infections and intervention costs.

Optimizing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies against COVID-19 using artificial intelligence.

One key task in the early fight against the COVID-19 pandemic was to plan non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the spread of the infection while limiting the burden on the society and economy. With more data on the pandemic being generated, it became possible to model both the infection trends and intervention costs, transforming the creation of an intervention plan into a computational optimization problem. This paper proposes a framework developed to help policy-makers plan the best combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and to change them over time. We developed a hybrid machine-learning epidemiological model to forecast the infection trends, aggregated the socio-economic costs from the literature and expert knowledge, and used a multi-objective optimization algorithm to find and evaluate various intervention plans. The framework is modular and easily adjustable to a real-world situation, it is trained and tested on data collected from almost all countries in the world, and its proposed intervention plans generally outperform those used in real life in terms of both the number of infections and intervention costs.

Ranking Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Against COVID-19: A Review

In this review, we examine 34 studies based on experimental data that estimate and compare the effective ness of 12 non-pharmaceutical government interventions against COVID-19 based on cases, deaths, and/or transmission rates to assess their overall effectiveness. The studies reviewed are based on daily country level data and cover four to 200 countries and regions worldwide with varying time intervals, spanning the period between December 2019 and August 2021. We found that the overall most effective interventions are restrictions on gatherings, workplace closing, public information campaigns, and school closing, while the least effective are close public transport, contact tracing, and testing policy.

Machine Learning for Analyzing Non-Countermeasure Factors Affecting Early Spread of COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic affected the whole world, but not all countries were impacted equally. This opens the question of what factors can explain the initial faster spread in some countries compared to others. Many such factors are overshadowed by the effect of the countermeasures, so we studied the early phases of the infection when countermeasures had not yet taken place. We collected the most diverse dataset of potentially relevant factors and infection metrics to date for this task. Using it, we show the importance of different factors and factor categories as determined by both statistical methods and machine learning (ML) feature selection (FS) approaches. Factors related to culture (e.g., individualism, openness), development, and travel proved the most important. A more thorough factor analysis was then made using a novel rule discovery algorithm. We also show how interconnected these factors are and caution against relying on ML analysis in isolation. Importantly, we explore potential pitfalls found in the methodology of similar work and demonstrate their impact on COVID-19 data analysis. Our best models using the decision tree classifier can predict the infection class with roughly 80% accuracy.

Intelligent Cognitive Assistants for Attitude and Behavior Change Support in Mental Health: State-of-the-Art Technical Review

Intelligent cognitive assistant (ICA) technology is used in various domains to emulate human behavior expressed through synchronous communication, especially written conversation. Due to their ability to use individually tailored natural language, they present a powerful vessel to support attitude and behavior change. Behavior change support systems are emerging as a crucial tool in digital mental health services, and ICAs exceed in effective support, especially for stress, anxiety and depression (SAD), where ICAs guide people’s thought processes and actions by analyzing their affective and cognitive phenomena. Currently, there is no comprehensive review of such ICAs from a technical standpoint, and existing work is conducted exclusively from a psychological or medical perspective. This technical state-of-the-art review tried to discern and systematize current technological approaches and trends as well as detail the highly interdisciplinary landscape of intersections between ICAs, attitude and behavior change, and mental health, focusing on text-based ICAs for SAD. Ten papers with systems, fitting our criteria, were selected. The systems varied significantly in their approaches, with the most successful opting for comprehensive user models, classification-based assessment, personalized intervention, and dialogue tree conversational models.